Category: Forecasting

Is the current season of monster hurricanes the new normal?


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Thanks to Harvey, Irma and Maria there’s been a lot of damage from tropical systems this year. By David Epstein It’s been a very active hurricane season with some incredible storms reaching levels rarely seen in the Atlantic ocean. From Houston to the Keys in Florida to Barbuda and […]

Knowing El Niño


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In early 1998, I was interviewed about the 1997-98 El Niño for an article in the Pennsylvania Gazette (a University of Pennsylvania Publication for Alumni and others). My brother in New England sent the article based on that interview to me recently. I had forgotten about it till […]

Federal Forecasters Say El Niño Will Mean a Wet Winter for the Southern U.S.


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Federal forecasters say El Niño will mean a wet winter for the southern U.S. Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 12:57 p.m. EDT October 16, 2015 A wet winter is forecast for the southern tier of the U.S while drier-than-average conditions are likely in the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and […]

Decision Making


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Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) and Forecasting El Niño Over a decade ago, the US National Science Foundation developed a program to research the notion of “decision making under uncertainty” (DMUU). DMUU has value for applying science to societal decision-making processes. The scientific community’s “job” is to focus […]

Odds Keep Rising for a Big El Niño in 2015


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El Niño has arrived, it’s getting stronger, and it’s not about to go away soon. And already there are rumblings that this could be a big one. El Niño in Australia means warmer temperatures, and sometimes, but not always, drier conditions. In 2014, some climatologists thought a big […]